Early Election 2012 Prediction

Obama wins.

Romney will garner flyover country.

Obama will manage to lock out the North East, and the West coast. He will take Penn and Ohio with metropolitan city based votes. He will also eek out a victory in Florida.

In essence, his win will be built from the following coalition.

DNC supporting Democrats. The machine will lockstep the traditional DNC Big Union political focus that depends on 4 more years with Obama.

Liberal causes based independent Liberals. Social cause or liberal causes will be forced out of desperation to support Obama. No one really cares about the temperature of the Sun, who is starving in Appalachia, or why Jim cant marry John. But the supporters of these fringe political issues aren't even invited to the political table for discussion with Romney.

Black voters, voting mostly due to pigmentation and no other reason. Blacks have taken a huge economic hit under this administration's policies. But for the most part, the black voters won't stop and question if President Obama's promises have even remotely turned out as he said they would.

Hispanics that are citizenship challenged. Motor Voter laws, and the refusal of Voter ID laws has created an interesting case where many of the Southern States now have substantial illegal voters who break the traditional mold. In the past we had "Dead Voters" or "Out of District Voters", or even the favorite ploy of "mass proxy" voters. But in this case we have a substantial pool of "voters" who will vote in Federal Elections and largely for Democrat candidates. Given Obama's recent announcement to not enforce immigration law, he will undoubtably enjoy even more support from this group of voters. In most states and in most voting districts the existence of illegal voters has as much impact as absentee ballot provisional counting does. IE not enough to make a difference even if every single vote by the illegals was cast in the same direction. However in states like Florida, where margins in presidential elections amount to a couple thousand, having 80,000 illegals registered to vote who are also primarily Hispanic, and primarily leaning Democrat probably will take that state, and the election to Obama's favor.

Social voters. The Get out the vote to be in a popular movement young voter. Likely their first election. Likely don't know who their state representatives are or even what the or means following the names on the ballot. These are voters who are voting because they have been told by their peers they have to vote.

Romney will lose due to the following:

RNC. Its so out of touch that it cant understand that raising scads of cash from major corporate donors and conservatives with more money than sense in order to run glitzy attack media advertising, does nothing to address what most Republican rank and file see as important. All in all the RNC favored candidates from Romney down are there not because they are the best people but because they played the RNC game and got the money.

Moral Issues Supporters. In the grand scheme of things, where you are allowed to put a penis, or what you are allowed to put into a vagina is ultimately not an actual political policy debate. Many of the fundamentalist Christian denominations threaten candidates that if they don't publicly espouse the same opinion, they wont get that denomination's block vote or the money that is needed to fund second and third tier candidates in an election cycle. Most American's dont really care if Gary marries Steve. But Romeny will be too timid to risk losing this block of voters and therefor two their version of the party line.

Tea Party voters. While the mainstream media still miss characterizes and misrepresents the Tea Party, the reality remains that these people see a specific but also broad set of issues that need to be addressed. IE, the government has too many regulatory holds on every day life. The government has grown too large in terms of administrative units and in actual employees. Taxation policy is too dysfunctional to either fund the government or be fair in the taxation levels. For romeny to win their vote, he has to promise to eliminate government agencies, reduce government staff levels, eliminate regulatory oversights, eliminate current tax code, and propose an enactable replacement of the tax code that is broad, flat and fair. None of which Romney is going to do. Many Tea Party supporters will be casting protest votes or not at all.

The average American. TMZ and the latest fashion craze. They will tire of the contest between the two candidates early. Given the portrayal of Obama over the past 3 years in the media, these voters wont even be able to fathom a single plausible reason why anyone wouldn't want Obama as President for 4 more years. Thankfully most of them wont vote in November because they will actually somehow forget about election day. But enough of them will go to the polling station to eliminate Romney's chances.

Popular vote wise, I see Obama pulling 52% to Romney's 48%.

EC wise I see it being much tighter.
Obama 268
Romney 270
WA,CA,OR,NV,CO,NM, NE2, MN, WI, IL, MI, NY, VT, ME, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, DC, MD, NC,SC, HI, all going to Obama.

Remainder going to Romney with key wins in VA and FL.

Will lead to the claims of Romney not being a legitimate political leader, stolen elections, and a call for the elimination of the EC.